The S&P 500 index is one of the most watched aspects of the stock market. It tracks the performance of the top 500 companies in the United States and is often seen as an indicator of the overall economy.
At the start of 2021, the S&P 500 index was trading at around 3,850 points. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, the general outlook for the stock market is largely positive. Many analysts are forecasting that the S&P could reach as high as 4,700 or 4,800 points by the end of the year.
This leads to the question, is it more likely for the S&P to move above 4,600 or below 4,200?
This is a difficult question to answer because the stock market can be incredibly unpredictable, making it hard to make any definitive predictions. In the short-term, the S&P could go either way as the stock market remains volatile from day to day.
In the long-term, though, it is more likely that the S&P 500 will move above 4,600 rather than below 4,200. This is because the economy is already beginning to show signs of recovery, and the global corporate earnings outlook is looking positive.
Moreover, the recent stimulus packages and additional government aid in the US have provided a catalyst for stock market growth. This could be further supplemented by a successful rollout of the coronavirus vaccine worldwide, which would create a more favorable environment for business and stock market performance.
The possibility of the S&P 500 going below 4,200 is not impossible, especially if there is a relapse in sentiment due to a continued spread of the coronavirus or a weaker than expected recovery. However, a more optimistic outlook would suggest that the S&P 500 will likely move above 4,600 in 2021.