As per the market trends and prominent predictions, in the upcoming week, the NIFTY may witness restrained upsides. Although certain positive triggers could lead to increased stability in the market, it is anticipated that the benchmark index might experience resistance at around 18,000 levels. Market watchers speculate that due to the looming concerns over likely tapering by central banks, the upsides for NIFTY might stay capped.
This hypothesis is reinforced by the indications from both domestic as well as international markets. The US Federal Reserve announced a potential reduction in monthly bond purchases, creating an apprehensive global backdrop which could impact the Indian market. Alongside, India’s internal economic factors and upcoming festive season may also influence the trajectory of the NIFTY index.
Observing internal aspects, grim data presented by the Indian core sector and the threat of inflation play a significant role in our analysis. The eight core industries’ output growth hit a four-month low of 3.7% in August, coupled with retail and wholesale inflation, causing a slight quiver in the stability of the NIFTY. On the upside, the upcoming festive season might bring a breath of fresh air with potential boosts in consumption-driven sectors.
The sectoral landscape is also expected to undergo several shifts. The banking sector looks buoyant with banks likely to post improved NPAs aided by the economic revival. NIFTY Bank has been resilient, and it would be crucial to watch this space in the upcoming week, considering that the banking sector largely contributes to the NIFTY index.
The automobile sector is another interesting area to watch, as recent positive sales figures in passenger vehicles point to a recovery. Amid the semiconductor shortage, a recovery in sales in the festive season could positively influence the NIFTY Auto index.
On the other end, caution rings in the real estate sector. Even though the sector has witnessed a solid run up and indications of a strong revival recently, sustainability remains questionable, factoring in high valuations, and hence might experience some profit booking.
The IT sector also hinted at some warning signals with investors advised to remain cautious. Given the strengthening Indian Rupee, the sector’s future performance remains under scrutiny as most IT firms may have to face the heat due to decreasing export competitiveness.
To bring it all together, the week ahead for NIFTY hints at a probability of capped upsides amidst various influencing factors and changes in the sectoral landscape. The banking and auto sectors seem to provide a certain promise, while caution must be exercised in the real estate and IT domains. It would be vital for investors to keep an eagle eye on the interplay of these larger macroeconomic and sectoral trends as they plan their investment strategies for the coming week.
