The backbone of global market activity, Friday’s rally, provided a semblance of optimism and financial stability, with indicators experiencing a remarkable uptick. However, one major concern that the momentum would not be sustainable carried uncertainty creeping behind the gleaming optimism witnessed during the Friday’s rally. This concern rested squarely on the continuing economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the uncertainty about its management globally.
The coronavirus pandemic has emerged as a leading antagonist, disrupting not only the health sector but the global economy as well. Most of the economies adversely hit by the virus are still in a slow struggle to rebuild. Many businesses remain mothballed, and unemployment remains worryingly high beside the ominous threat of a fatigued and unpredictable market. As such, despite the promise brought by Friday’s rally, there are questions about sustainability given that a cure for this virus is still not within our sights.
More so, the stimulus spending that fueled the bull market and invited optimistic trading is merely a temporary fix. Although the stimulus cheques led to a surge in consumer spending which impacted the stock market positively, this kind of artificial injection is hardly sustainable. Once it steadies off, economies and the stock market could again find themselves at the mercy of the pandemic’s economic effects.
Market watchers are also cynically interpreting indicators such as the VIX. The index manages expectations of volatility in the stock market. Despite the upswing witnessed on Friday, VIX rose simultaneously, a situation rarely seen. This peculiar equilibrium disturbed several analysts who saw it as a sign of the market bracing itself for a highly probable drop.
Moreover, the discrepancy between Wall Street’s accomplishments and Main Street’s reality has widened further. Some key sectors likely to jumpstart the economy such as travel, leisure, accommodation among others are still largely inactive due to required health measures. Yet despite this, Wall Street still rallied. This again raises questions about the equilibrium and the sustainability of the bull market.
Additionally, the high-risk nature that has characterized the marketplace recently is equally a major concern. Day trading by retail traders has surged and is driven by speculation rather than actual business performance or potential. Many of these retail traders are hard-pressed to make quick gains, propelling increased trading volumes which could potentially inflate a bubble that bursts when least expected.
Lastly, geopolitical tensions and their brewing uncertainties present another concern to the stock market despite the rally. Rising tensions between global powers could negatively impact the investment climate and international trade, adding to the already volatile post-pandemic recovery phase.
In conclusion, while Friday’s rally offered a hint of economic recovery, we must not gloss over the market’s vulnerabilities. The rally surfaced amidst numerous uncertainties, and if not correctly addressed, they may disrupt the delicate balance that has allowed markets to function amid such uncertainties. Despite these impacts, the major concern for Friday’s rally is that the market may be sitting on a time bomb. This requires investors and policy makers to be ready for anything. Investors should remain cautious and attentive, lest the promise of Friday’s rally becomes a fleeting moment in financial history.
