Subheading 1: The Continuation of American Troop Withdrawal
President Trump, in his first term, showed a distinct predisposition towards reducing the American military footprint in the Middle East. This trend is likely to persist in a second term, with further decreases in troops stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan. It underscores his belief in diminishing American involvement in endless wars. The withdrawal of troops, while potentially diffusing direct tensions, could reshape the geopolitical landscape, creating power vacuums that could be exploited by insurgent groups or regional powers such as Iran.
Subheading 2: The Ambitious Pursuit of Peace Deals
President Trump’s first term demonstrated a novel approach to peace negotiations. The Abraham Accords, brokered by his administration, established formal diplomatic relations between Israel and multiple Arab nations (United Arab Emirates and Bahrain). In a second term, he would likely continue to pursue similar peace deals in the region. This diplomatic initiative could serve as a counterbalance to Iran’s influence, strengthening bonds between Israel and Sunni Arab nations, alter long-standing regional alliances, and even redefine the Palestinian peace process.
Subheading 3: Sanctions and the Maximum Pressure Policy on Iran
Trump’s second term might witness the continuation of the present ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran, characterized by stringent economic sanctions and military threats. This policy, while decried by critics as exacerbating tensions and risking military confrontation, appears to align with his strategy of bullying adversaries into negotiations. Whether this approach will bring Iran back to the negotiation table or will push it further away remains an open question in his second term.
Subheading 4: The question of Syria
Trump’s approach to Syria has been marked by a balance of disengagement and deterrence. In his second term, he is expected to maintain a small U.S military presence to secure oil fields and deter a resurgence of the Islamic State. Simultaneously, he would likely continue to resist calls for greater involvement in the Syrian Civil War. Nonetheless, the minimal presence of the US might cause Russia and Iran to attempt to exert more control in the region, signaling further disruption and potential conflicts down the line.
Subheading 5: The Indeterminate Stand on Turkey
The U.S. relationship with Turkey under the Trump administration has been convoluted, marked by both caustic confrontation and warm praise. Trump’s second term could see a continuation of this dynamic. While his administration imposed economic sanctions on Turkey for its purchase of a Russian missile system, the NATO ally relationship was preserved by the personal rapport between him and Turkish President Erdogan. A clear stance that harmonizes the complexity of the relationship would be a challenge in the second term.
Subheading 6: The Intensification of Economic Statecraft
Trump’s use of economic levers, including sanctions, tariffs, and trade deals, has defined U.S. relations with states in the Middle East. We can expect to see an intensification of economic statecraft as a tool of foreign policy in his second term. The push would likely be for greater arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others, potentially escalating the arms race in the region.
In conclusion, if he gets a second term, Trump’s Middle East policy might reflect a continuation of his first term’s themes, characterized by military disengagement, aggressive economic statecraft, ambitious diplomatic initiatives, and unconventional alliances. However, the ending of the “endless wars” as he puts it, could change political alignments, power structures, and stability in the region.
