The global climate experienced a discernible shift lately as July brought an end to the 13-month streak of record breaking heat across the world. This intermittent relief, however, is exclusively attributed to the natural decline of the El Nino effect and is not indicative of a reduction in global warming. Experts are inclined to caution against false relief or complacency as the fight against climate change continues unabated.
To provide a bit of background, the El Nino effect refers to the irregular increase in temperatures that occur over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This effect has been observed to distort weather patterns across the globe and results in increased global temperatures, which greatly influenced the prolonged period of heat records seen in the past 13 months.
Yet, the global climate operates within cyclical variations with periodic shifts in sea temperatures, caused by phenomena such as El Nino and its reverse, La Nina. As El Nino ebbs away, the atmospheric temperatures tend to decrease slightly, leading to a halt in back-to-back heat records. This natural pattern has manifested in July, providing a temporary respite from consistently escalating temperatures.
However, viewing this temporary cease-fire in temperature increase as a sign of recovery could be a radical misinterpretation. Climate scientists widely agree that the underlying, relentless driver of global warming is the continuous emission of greenhouse gases, a product of human activities. The warming trend caused by these gases is robust and unequivocal. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), April 2021 marked the 43th consecutive April and 436th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average.
El Nino’s waning phase might have put a temporary full stop to spiraling temperatures but it is widely acknowledged that the bigger picture of long-term global warming remains unchanged. The tailing off El Nino merely offers a temporary break in record-breaking global temperatures, masking the reality of climate change.
Moreover, a fading El Nino heralds the onset of a La Nina episode which holds its own repercussions. La Nina, characterized by lower than average ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, can lead to extreme weather in different parts of the world, such as increased rainfall or extended drought periods, thus bringing about its own set of environmental challenges.
The recurring heat records of the past 13 months and the recent cessation serve as important reminders that climate change isn’t a linear process. It is inherently complex and multifaceted, subject to numerous influencing factors both human-induced and natural. While the slow-down in rising temperatures is welcome, it is not indicative of a slowdown in the progress of climate change itself.
The decline of an El Nino phase must not be confused with a decline in global warming – the two are separate entities. It is paramount that actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to mitigate and adapt to climate change continue. The world mustn’t become complacent in the face of a temporary respite, our fight against climate change must persist unabated. It’s crucial to interpret these climate phenomena within the bigger picture of long-term global warming to ensure realistic and effective strategies in the tussle against climate change.
Therefore, while July’s respite from the 13-month-long heat wave may offer a breather, it is but a momentary lapse in a much larger, ongoing battle. We must keep our defenses bolstered and not lose sight of the persisting and pervasive issue that is climate change.
